EXPERT SYSTEM FOR TACTICAL INDICATIONS AND WARNING ( l & W ) ANALYSIS

This paper addresses the problem of developing an expert system to aid the G2 intelligence analyst in performing the tactical indications of warning task. These include assimilating numerous reports based on sensor and intelligence data (in signal and symbol form); combining such knowledge with information pertaining to terrain, weather patterns, enemy organization, equipment and general cababilities; and predicting significant events in a battlefield environment such as numerical changes of enemy forces, enemy attack at key positions, unusual deployment of forces and equipment, and so forth. $ The specific problem areas investigated for expert systems technology applications, include activation of tactical indicators; indicator relationships (how the activity of some indicators can be predicted/inferred from others); identification of information gaps and collection tasking (identifying the critical elements of information that are not available for making reliable l&W assessments, such as definitive indicator activation and how to task . »nsors to obtain them); and tactical warning. The approach suggested by the current work consists of incorporating expert knowledge into condition/action rules and developing appropriate frame structures for various categories of sensor and intelligence reports. A global two-dimensional data structure is used to accommodate specific reports from very different sources, efficiently trigger relevant rules, and keep the human analyst abreast of the developing threat situation. Each rule is also represented as a frame, facilitating browsing through the rules, adding new rules, and assigning credit and blame to rules. Such representation is currently a very useful feature in the development of a strategic l&W prototype expert system. INTRODUCTION officers has led to emphasis on the following requirements in developing such applications: The application of expert systems techniques to the problem of tactical battlefield indications and warning (I and W) appears extremely promising. • Development of battlefield threat Discussion with U.S. Army scenarios which distribute tactical commanders, line officers, and retired indicators chronologically. 145 HUfö&ttftftüM; :v: ;• :%•:«w rr*rn ,i-."y.T. ?,v.A7,wf'7'w T> *J^5TJTL^S^TC*. wv^Tv^^jg^L^c^v? JCT*' ^T^V V '»'TIT^" Identification of the types and sources of intelligence reports associated with the various classes of tactical indicators. Acquisition of expert knowledge on Tactical I and W decision and assessment criteria for the following: a. Indicator activation b. Indicator relationships across time c. Identification of incomplete and/or unreliable report information d. Collection system tasking e. Tactical warning. Design and development of a prototype tactical I and W expert system.